Trump Win… Good For Stock Market
2020 election will be a pivot point for several areas of the stock market
Last week, was the first week that the S&P 500 rose as Trump’s odds of winning the election fell. “For the past year, expectations as to whether Trump will win again in November (as tracked by the betting markets) have been moving in sync with S&P 500 performance,” Calvasina writes. “But that relationship has broken down a bit in early June, with Trump’s chances (according to the betting markets) falling and the S&P 500 surging.”
Market Direction
While trying to speculate the market reaction to a specific event like a Trump reelection or Biden victory may not be worthwhile, historical trends about stock market performance before, during, and after presidential elections can help set expectations for wary investors about what has happened in the past. History is a helpful guide, but as we all know, the future has no promises.
The highflying technology sector in the U.S. stock market is largely shrugging off increased bipartisan scrutiny by Congress, but a win by Democratic challenger Joe Biden over President Donald Trump in the November presidential election could undercut the market leaders, while the prospect for a boost in infrastructure spending could lift “old-economy” cyclical stocks, according to one analyst.
This is logical, as the markets hate uncertainty. For investors, it’s important to step back, put personal feelings about politics aside, and objectively assess the situation and what it might mean for your personal finances.
